#Nigeria #Tinubu #Pantami #Osinbajo #Atiku
A friend had after a political conversation yesterday shared an excerpt of the interview granted Senator Adeseye Ogunlewe of Lagos state by Arise TV. Therein, the senator had opined that the north was a master in the political game and he saw no how they were going to relinquish power to Asiwaju Tinubu, he felt they could at best utilize his funds and deny him power, he made references to Awolowo and Abiola of blessed memories. The Senators submission was full with criticality that one would want to pick interest and critically review. Let me attempt to do that here in combination with what I know.
The above submission also resonated with the conversation I always hold with the Director Women mobilization of my defunct #30PercentOrNothing group, she hails from Delta State. She had always opined that God had been fair in the sharing of the Nigerian space to the extent that the West has the formal economy, the south has oil, the east has trade while the north had power and therefore she had no issue if the north were to remain in power forever, after all they’re masters in the game. Her submission was equally rich with facts that one would not wanna ignore.
Against this backdrop, I took a few minutes out to analyze how realistic it was for the north as a political bloc to relinquish power to the south. Recall that the emergence of Buhari in 2015 came with myriad of issues which created deep cracks that in my opinion have not been healed yet. A lot of the issues may be termed as perceptions but those perceptions have today become reality to many and it was such that led to heated arguments about north and south presidency penultimate to the current season. You could see a semblance of disdain for the power to return to the north and such was visible in the build up to the PDP primary elections. It only took the emergence of an Atiku Abubakar to douse such tension and this made me understand the importance of networking and liberality.
Furthermore, economically and structurally, the northern Nigeria has never been at a low ebb like now and I will be suspecting that the north may not be ready to relinquish its only piece. This makes it expedient for anyone with discernment to look deeper into the issues going on in the ruling APC especially as regards the recommendation for the power to shift to the south in that party. The party actually boxed itself into that level through its management of perceptions and relationships throughout the country. Whether such will be in the best interest of the north and its power brokers remains to be seen in the availability of a sound option like Atiku who is trying for the fifth time. Remember that in all honesty, the north does not posses the sort of patience and buffer needed to survive a perceived or realistic bias against them.
This piece is just a realistic analysis of the issues based on history and recent happenings and does not in any way represent a state of mind. We wish for the country to come United but equally believe that the actions and inaction of the leaders will be instrumental to that.
May the best man lead Nigeria.
When all the hullabaloo about the expectation of a declaration for the presidency by Prof Osinbajo rented the air months back, one would assume that the eventual coming to light of it will shake the land through the advent of some A-Class strategies and strategists. However, the entire event was far from expectation, perhaps as a result of the sort of individuals that were involved in it. One wouldn’t have expected anything more from the sort of individuals that featured in the entire Osinbajo programme.
The only critical contributors to the entire Osinbajo agenda was Channels Television, who deliberately first aired the recorded video of the declaration as well as following up on all the rented crowds from certain states and claiming it was a spontaneous celebration. These guys couldn’t have thought us what a spontaneous celebration would look like when we are just coming from a Buharinomia of which they themselves are major beneficiaries of. Spontaneous celebrants don’t carry placards, they invade runways and close down streets.
In all honestly, it is not this event that made me started to doubt the Professors ability to make critical recruitments. I had always wondered how a Laolu Akande would be a spokesperson to a cerebral person like Yemi Osinbajo. He lacks depth and originality whenever he’s meant to defend his principal, he always dodges critical debates. The only recruitment I had liked that the Prof did was that of Ajuri Ngelale and the guy too is too formal for Nigeria’s rugged sake. Which other Osinbajo’s recruit demonstrated the much needed street credential that the Jagaban Borgu has brought on board all these while.
Akinwunmi Ambode also attempted to outshine the master at that time. We all also thought he had his game tight and was just going to pull it through. Unfortunately, it was as empty as box of shreds. He fell like a fallen tree which has not even started to develop any roots nor develop any fruits.
We all also recall how Babatunde Fashola left Governor and totally lost touch with politics and mobilization. He became more of a technocrat that was just good at getting the job done using the bureaucracy but not recruiting any street smart people to mobilize and form a movement. This is why even though Buhari ponders making him a presidential flag bearer, he just hasn’t demonstrated enough political sagacity to encourage such thought. It’s all in your ability to make critical recruitments folks.
There’s no need to waste time talking about Lai Mohammed who only stylishly jumped on the O-to-Ge movement but has since found it difficult to prove it was his idea or that he was fully in charge of it. Little wonder why Babajide Sanwo-Olu has stayed put and paying the appropriate dues of loyalty.
All of these have proved a simple point that Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu remains the best recruit of men who could get the job done and even though he has empowered them enough to be able to form their own dynasties, they have simply failed at it and at this point we all don’t have a choice but to drop the cap and salute the Jagaban of Borgu.
Much respect Sir!
The last week had been agog with the El-Rufai/NBA saga, an event which further exposed the realities and depth of the fault lines that are existent in us. As soon as the dis-invitation came, the matter took a religious coloration with the core northern Muslim lawyers calling for boycotts of the NBA conference, on whether their boycotting the conference would or had any effect on the success of the conference is a conversation for other times.
Whilst El-Rufai was busy assembling the former Emir of Kano to clarify his non bigoted nature, his kinsmen did not stop in anyway to continue to push the narrative that the matter was an entirely religious matter. In fact, some headlines have it that the core northern Muslim lawyers have formed a parallel New Nigeria Bar Association ( NNBA). Again, whether such an association and its proprietors have what it takes to grow it to the statutes of NBA is another analysis we could come to in times to come, perhaps.
But in all of it, the events showcased our realities and an inkling to what could be expected in the 2023 election permutations where religion will be the biggest player. The saga above was a litmus test towards buttressing how much religion will play in the selection and combination of candidates for the 2023 elections.
Mr Yakubu Dogara had been readmitted into the APC weeks ago and the nation predictably assumed it to mean an arrangement for his becoming a vice presidential candidate to Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu for religious balancing. The suggestion came preemptive from the people, another point to buttress how much the 2023 elections was all about religion and balancing. The Dogara matter went so loud that the man had to come out to denounce vice presidential aspiration as his reason for rejoining the APC.
Remember also that the People’s Democratic Party is by the corner waiting to see the possible religious arrangement by the APC so they could arrange theirs with religion also forming the crux. Atiku Abubakar had since endorsed the launching of the Atiku TV brand as well as the Atiku Kawai 2023 and these are signals that he will certainly seek the candidacy of the PDP at least to go into primary elections with other candidates. Situations like these leave the APC with more thinking to do regarding the religious balancing because a Muslim northern candidate from PDP makes the combination from the APC who are likely to go for a South West candidate very difficult. Perhaps if it is going to be a Muslim south westerner, then his VP has to also be a Muslim northerner and one with strong standing.
It was out of deep thought that I presented Dr Isa Ali Pantami as near perfect fit for the 2023 presidential permutations and the above situations could provide a further insight plus being happy for the vindication on a daily. 2023 elections are going to be so tough that predictions will be very difficult and strategies especially the religious balancing and utterances will have to be top notch. It is advisable for the players to employ knowledgeable and strategic individuals who could have very little room for mistakes.
It was not a mistake or a fluke that Abiola a southern Muslim was paired with Kingibe a northern muslim in 1993. The decision was out of critical research on the demography of the nation vis a vis religious considerations. As for Asiwaju Tinubu, it even becomes easier because he will becoming into the game with performance and progressive capital as well as ample presence of Christianity in him with Deaconess Remi Tinubu being one and same as him. Should he choose to become a king maker and anoint his loyal man Pastor Osinbajo, Dr Isa Ali Pantami will be appropriate in all the situations. Perhaps, Dr Isa Ali Pantami ascendence in religious and governance affairs have a date with destiny, time shall tell.
As for PDP, their best bet at coming close to clinching victory is the presentation of a northern Muslim candidate for president with a sound Christian deputy from the south who could be able to neutralize Ashiwaju’s hold to some extent. Even at this, with an Isa Pantami’s vice presidency, the calculations will be a little tougher for them, time again shall tell.
Political pundits like us wish to bring all these realities to fore in order that politicians and other compatriots can understand the need to reduce emotions in dealing with issues and accept reality and objectivity. For me, a Muslim- Muslim or Christian- Christian combination may be an opportunity for us to find our unity again as a nation. We have defeated some insinuations with the fact that Buhari has not yet Islamized Nigeria and will never do. The same religion combination could be an opportunity to finally bury some of these insinuations that are devoid of research and analysis on people’s antecedents and capabilities.
In the entire situations, all will be well that ends well.
May the best team emerge for the benefit of the nation.